Hamas' October 7th Attacks: A Bid To Sabotage The Israel-Saudi Deal?

Laila Abdi

5 min read

Post on May 19, 2025

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Hamas' Motives: Beyond Retaliation?

While Hamas framed the October 7th attacks as retaliation for Israeli actions in the West Bank and Gaza, the strategic timing of the assault suggests a more complex agenda. The potential to sabotage the Israel-Saudi normalization process cannot be overlooked.

The Timing of the Attacks:

• September - October 2023: Reports of significant progress in Israel-Saudi normalization talks emerged throughout this period, with some suggesting a potential announcement was imminent.
• October 6th, 2023: Several news outlets reported on heightened activity related to the negotiations, including potential meetings between key officials.
• October 7th, 2023: The Hamas attacks commenced, immediately overshadowing the normalization discussions and sparking a major regional conflict.

This meticulously timed assault raises the question: Did Hamas anticipate and preemptively react to the potential success of the Israel-Saudi dialogue, seeing it as a threat to their own goals and regional influence?

Weakening the Negotiation Position:

The October 7th attacks undoubtedly weakened Israel's negotiating position. The immediate aftermath saw a shift in focus from normalization talks to military operations and humanitarian crises.

• Impact on Public Opinion: The attacks created widespread fear and anger within Israel, potentially hardening public attitudes toward any concessions to Saudi Arabia. Similarly, in Saudi Arabia, the attacks might fuel skepticism about the viability of peace with Israel.
• Regional Security: The attacks dramatically destabilized the region, undermining the very conditions necessary for sustained peace negotiations. The increased tension and military action created an environment unfavorable for diplomatic progress.

Experts suggest that Hamas may have calculated that disrupting the normalization process would bolster their own standing within the Palestinian territories and potentially garner further support from certain factions opposed to the Israel-Saudi deal.

Internal Palestinian Politics:

The attacks might also be partly explained by internal Palestinian power dynamics. Hamas's actions may be seen as a play for dominance within the Palestinian movement.

• Competition with other Factions: Hamas's actions could be interpreted as an attempt to undercut the influence of other Palestinian groups more amenable to negotiating with Israel.
• Internal Standing: The attacks may have served to consolidate Hamas's power base by demonstrating its willingness to employ force to achieve its objectives, even at the risk of derailing potential peace negotiations.

The Impact on Israel-Saudi Relations:

The October 7th attacks had a profound and immediate impact on the nascent Israel-Saudi relationship.

Immediate Fallout:

• Official Statements: Both Israel and Saudi Arabia issued strong condemnations of the Hamas attacks, but the focus shifted drastically away from peace negotiations.
• Policy Shifts: The immediate response involved military mobilization, humanitarian aid efforts, and an overall hardening of positions on both sides.

Long-term Implications:

The long-term effects of the attacks on the normalization process are highly uncertain.

• Progress Stalled: The attacks almost certainly put the normalization talks on hold, at the very least, while the region deals with the immediate consequences of war.
• Shifts in Alliances: The attacks could potentially lead to shifts in regional alliances, with countries re-evaluating their relationships with Israel and other players in the conflict.

Experts anticipate a significant delay, if not a complete collapse, of the proposed Israel-Saudi agreement.

International Response and its Influence:

The international community's response to the Hamas attacks has significant implications for Israel-Saudi relations.

• US Response: The United States, a crucial mediator in past Middle East peace processes, condemned the attacks strongly and expressed support for Israel. Their stance will influence subsequent negotiations.
• European Union Response: The European Union condemned the attacks but also stressed the need for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Their position might affect future aid and diplomatic efforts.

Alternative Explanations and Counterarguments:

It is crucial to acknowledge that alternative explanations for Hamas' actions exist. The attacks could be viewed purely as an act of retaliation for Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, driven by a long-standing conflict and not directly aimed at sabotaging the Israel-Saudi deal.

However, the strategic timing and the profound impact on the negotiations strongly suggest a more multifaceted motive that cannot be dismissed. A balanced perspective requires acknowledging all contributing factors.

Conclusion: Assessing the Link Between Hamas' October 7th Attacks and the Israel-Saudi Deal

The timing and scale of the Hamas October 7th attacks strongly suggest a potential link to the ongoing Israel-Saudi normalization negotiations. While Hamas' motives are undeniably complex and involve multiple factors, the disruption of the peace process appears to be a significant consequence, if not an intended goal. The attacks have significantly hampered, if not completely derailed, the progress of the Israel-Saudi deal. This situation highlights the precarious nature of peace-building in the Middle East and the many factors that can contribute to or derail such fragile processes.

Further investigation and analysis are needed to fully understand the intricacies of Hamas' actions and their long-term impact on regional stability and the prospects for peace. Continue following developments in the Israel-Saudi peace process and the ongoing ramifications of the Hamas attacks for a comprehensive understanding of this evolving geopolitical landscape. Analyzing the Hamas attacks and their impact on Israel-Saudi peace prospects is crucial for understanding the complexities of Middle East conflict resolution.